Click on the respective links to download copies of our previously published FES documents or presentation materials.
FES 2018 was published on Thursday 12th July 2018.
For an overview of FES 2018 including the key messages, watch the short animation film below:
To download any of the 2018 FES copies, click on the links.
The main FES provides an overview of key areas and alongside, we also publish:
FES in 5, which is a summary document with key headlines and statistics from FES;
Scenario Framework document (v2 updated 7 Feb 2019) which details all the assumptions that are used as inputs into our models;
Data Workbook (v2 updated 17 July 2018) which contains the outputs from the numerous models, including detailed tables, graphs and charts;
Modelling Methods document which contains information on our modelling methodology and assumptions;
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) document (v3 updated 3 September 2018).
To find out more about what the key changes are from FES 2017 to 2018, check out the two documents below:
Regional breakdown of FES data
Our Future Energy Scenarios are intended to identify a range of credible scenarios across gas and electricity on a GB-wide basis. In order to support planning of the GB electricity transmission system, we split the GB-level data down into regional data sets using best available data. These data sets are published in November as part of the Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS).
In order to provide visibility and transparency of this work, below we have published a spreadsheet containing draft regional data for electricity in the four FES 2018 scenarios. We have also published the number of heat pumps and domestic electric vehicles per grid supply point in the four FES2018 scenarios. This data forms a starting point for our network analysis and should be considered draft at this stage as it may be modified for planning purposes in the subsequent processes.
FES 2019 draft electricity regional breakdown baseline -year one only (uploaded 12.04.19)
FES 2018 draft electricity regional breakdown V4 (uploaded 25.01.19)
Regional split of FES heat pumps and EVs V1 (uploaded 14.11.18)
To assist with understanding of the spreadsheets, we have also published the corresponding Spatial Methodology Document below:
Spatial electricity modelling methodology V1 (uploaded 31.07.18)
To watch the live-stream recordings and presentations from the conference, click on the links below.
Morning presentation slides which include:
Welcome and Opening Address presentations by Roisin Quinn, Head of System Operator Strategy and Fintan Slye, Director of UK System Operator National Grid, respectively
FES 2018 Analysis presentation by Marcus Stewart, Head of Energy Insights, National Grid
Electric Dreams presentation by Baroness Worthington, UK Head of Environmental Defense
Implications for UK Energy Strategy presentation by Gerald Davis, Executive Chair, Scenarios, World Energy Council
Afternoon presentation slides which include the:
Afternoon breakout session presentations:
Stakeholder engagement workshops were held in October 2017. To see the presentations that were used for the four events, click on the links below:
The Government’s recent announcement that it will end the sale of all new conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2040 has led to lots of speculation in the media regarding the effects on the energy system. Often National Grid’s FES, which is our analysis of future energy demands, has been cited incorrectly and sometimes out of context. This article is intended to clear up some of the mis-conceptions.
With the decline of North Sea gas in recent years the sourcing of supplies needed for the UK has become more diverse. What are the alternatives for meeting the seasonal swings that occur in gas demand from the coldest winter’s night to the hottest summer’s day? How will the closure of Britain’s largest gas storage facility impact these alternative sources? This Thought Piece explores these and related issues.
This is the first in a series of Thought Pieces which aims to stimulate discussion on going off grid. We will explore what going Off Grid really means and the challenges and opportunities we would face.
Forecourt thoughts: Mass fast charging of electric vehicles (April 2017)
This is the first in a series of Thought Pieces which aims to stimulate discussion on electric vehicles (EV) and how their adoption may influence the evolution of the electricity system. There are many different potential solutions to a world where EVs are common. In this piece we discuss the concept of establish a network of recharging stations as a means to overcome some of the issues that would be associated with residential charging.
Residential air-conditioners; giving them the third degree (June 2017) - In this Thought Piece, we aim to stimulate discussion on air conditioning (AC) in our homes. What if we experience a world where temperatures increase by 3oC, and where we would expect to see AC in our offices, shops and cars but not in our homes? What would AC in over 20 million homes look like? How could this affect the electricity system? Read here
District heating (March 2017) - Find out more about how heat could be transported more efficiently to local networks of buildings and how this could offer a possible solution to the decarbonisation challenge. Read here
The future of electricity operation in European regions (February 2017) - We look at the changing face of Great Britain's electricity system, and the development towards European regional markets. We also outline the opportunities and challenges for consumers. Read here